Grand Theft Auto VI's launch isn't just shaping up to be the biggest event in gaming history — it might also leave a dent in the US economy.
A new study suggests that Rockstar's next mega-release could cost the United States more than $1 billion in lost productivity on launch day alone, as huge numbers of workers and students skip work or class to play.
The "sick day" joke is becoming a real economic factor
Fans calling in sick — or burning a vacation day — to play a hotly anticipated game on release day is a long-running joke in gaming culture, but it's not just a joke anymore. GTA VI has already driven unusually early time-off requests, with players locking in days off well before Rockstar even confirmed the current release date. Given that it's widely considered the most anticipated game ever made, that's not entirely surprising: social media has been full of people mapping out their launch-day plans for months.
That anticipation lines up with the game's staggering commercial trajectory. Recent estimates point to GTA VI moving around 50 million copies at launch, generating roughly $4.5 billion in sales.
Where the billion-dollar figure comes from
The absenteeism study comes from José Montalvo, a Professor of Economics at Pompeu Fabra University, and was reported by Spanish outlet El Output. According to Montalvo's research, the sheer scale of people skipping work or school on release day could translate into a roughly $1 billion hit to the US economy from lost labor productivity alone.
The study estimates that the impact will be led disproportionately by young men aged 18 to 30, with thousands expected to miss work or classes on Thursday, November 19 — GTA VI's release date. The tech sector is flagged as the industry likely to feel it most, with an estimated 2% drop in labor productivity tied to the launch.
This isn't unprecedented. Past reports found that as much as 6% of 18-to-35-year-olds in major cities like Los Angeles and New York took the day off for Grand Theft Auto V's 2013 release — suggesting GTA VI, with a far larger and more online fanbase, could easily exceed that.
A billion-dollar loss, but a bigger billion-dollar win
For context, whatever hit the broader US economy takes will be dwarfed by what Take-Two Interactive and its shareholders stand to gain from the launch itself, given the game's multi-billion-dollar sales projections. It's also worth noting that Rockstar's UK-based development operations mean a chunk of that economic upside flows into Britain rather than the US.
Whether or not the billion-dollar estimate proves precise, it's a striking illustration of just how much cultural and economic gravity GTA VI has accumulated ahead of release — enough that economists are now treating a video game launch as a measurable line item in national productivity data.
Are you taking time off for GTA VI's launch? November 19 is fast approaching either way.
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